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OPEC saw demand growth of 2.25 million bpd, unchanged from last month for 2024, noting that global oil demand will rise by 1.85 million bpd in 2025 to 106.21 million bpd.

In its monthly report, OPEC saw world economic growth of 2.7% and 2.9% in 2025, supported by the expectation of a continued easing in general inflation throughout this year and next.

“Global economic growth remains robust,” OPEC said in the report.

“Further upside potential could materialize in all major OECD and non-OECD economies.”

OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut for the first quarter took effect last month.

The OPEC report said that OPEC oil production fell by 350,000 bpd to 26.34 million bpd in January as the latest voluntary output cuts took effect.

OPEC raised its world oil demand forecasts for the medium and long term in its annual outlook published in October.

It expects world oil demand to reach 116 million bpd by 2045, around 6 million bpd higher than the previous year’s report, with growth led by China, India, other Asian nations, Africa, and the Middle East.

– Ghais: We confirm OPEC’s long-term demand outlook

Earlier on Tuesday, OPEC’s Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais told Reuters he believed OPEC’s long-term demand outlook, which looks to 2045 and sees no peak in demand, is robust.

“We stand by what was published in our latest outlook, and we firmly believe that it is robust,” Ghais said.

OPEC will release the 2024 edition of the outlook later this year.

Ghais said we would have to “wait and see” until September or October when it is due if numbers vary.

“But we believe now our numbers stand and are very solid numbers,” he said.

“If anything, changing narratives we are seeing now … a lot of countries in the world turning back and slowing down and rethinking their net zero goals … that will create further long-term demand for oil.”

Ghais also said he was not concerned about Angola’s exit from the group, which was announced in December.

Angola said on Dec. 21 that it would leave OPEC, a decision that prompted a drop in oil prices at the time and that some analysts said raised questions about the unity of both OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance.

OPEC Chief said the country was welcome to rejoin if it wished.

“It is not the first time a member exits the organization for its own considerations,” he said.

– OPEC+ cuts

He explained that the nature of production cuts being implemented by OPEC+, which brings together OPEC and its allies, including Russia, is voluntary and reflects the group’s flexibility.

“For now, it’s probably the most suitable way,” he said.

“A voluntary cut is a sovereign decision by a country to adjust its production. It shows the inherent flexibility in our approach and that we have several means and ways to attend to market stability.”

– Oil prices

Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions continued in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, but gains were curtailed as investors reined in expectations for the US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Brent futures settled 77 cents higher or 0.94% at $82.77 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 95 cents higher, or 1.24%, at $77.87 a barrel.

On Monday, oil prices were near flat after gaining 6% last week, with the conflict in the Middle East keeping prices elevated.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis have kept up attacks in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians and striking vessels with commercial ties to the US, Britain, and Israel.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley raised its quarterly outlook for Brent crude prices as it now expects a balanced oil market this year, having expected a surplus earlier.

“Recent inventory declines suggest the oil market has been tighter than we initially expected,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a Monday note.

The bank expects Brent to average $82.50 per barrel in this year’s first and second quarters, compared with $80 and $77.50.

It raised forecasts for the last two quarters to $80 per barrel.

The bank lowered its forecast for non-OPEC supply growth to 1.5 million from 1.7 million bpd and raised its global demand growth forecast to 1.5 million from 1.3 million bpd


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