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Currency markets update

Reuters reported yesterday that the yen weakened against the dollar, stating that the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its key yield control policy unchanged in the upcoming week. BoJ policymakers want to analyze more data to ensure rising wages and inflation before considering any policy changes. The decision is not yet certain, and there might not be a consensus within the central bank.

Analysts expect the BoJ to maintain its yield curve control while possibly upgrading its inflation outlook. However, there is a possibility of a surprise policy shift. The speculation arises as Japan’s core inflation has been above the BoJ’s 2% target for over a year.

As a result, the dollar gained significantly against the yen, reaching its highest level since July 10. It is on track for its best weekly gain against the yen since October.

Next week will see central bank meetings in the U.S. and Europe. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are both expected to raise rates by 25 basis points. Investors will closely watch comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues on future rate hikes.

Traders are pricing in additional tightening this year, with rates expected to peak at 5.41% in November. Some economists believe this could be the last rate hike in this cycle, but a dovish pivot seems unlikely.

Overall, the dollar is performing well against major peers, with the dollar index rising to its highest level in two months. The euro and pound have weakened against the dollar due to various factors, including the prospects of rate hikes in the U.S. and economic data in the UK.

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