Google’s analysis suggesting quantum computers could breach the security of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies by 2029 has sparked warnings that Bitcoin prices could suffer a massive crash.
Forbes reported on Sunday that “about 32% of all Bitcoin ever mined — 6.7 million coins — sit in vulnerable addresses,” adding that “in a bearish reading, if a quantum breakthrough arrives before protocol upgrades, selling pressure from exposed wallets could crash prices well below current levels.”
Google’s Quantum AI team had earlier suggested on May 30 through its official blog and a new white paper that “the computational power needed to break Bitcoin’s security may be far lower than previously assumed,” signaling that the quantum computer threat is imminent. The team predicted that so-called “Q-Day” — when global data encryption could be cracked — may arrive as early as around 2029.
According to Google’s simulation model, a quantum system can pre-prepare part of its computations and complete a hacking attack in approximately nine minutes once an actual transaction occurs. Given that a Bitcoin transaction typically takes about 10 minutes to reach final confirmation, calculations show the probability of a hacker intercepting funds before the original sender reaches as high as 41%.
Laura Shin, host of the prominent crypto podcast “Unchained,” pointed to the “9-minute attack window” problem. She warned that a high-performance quantum computer could theoretically reverse-engineer a private key from a public key exposed on the network during a transaction, then steal funds within the roughly 10 minutes before the next Bitcoin block is confirmed.
Forbes assessed that the current downturn “reflects not just the quantum issue, but macroeconomic factors including the Iran conflict and expectations of interest rate hikes in Japan,” and that “the short-term price impact on Bitcoin holders appears limited, with the market treating Google’s paper as a medium-term risk rather than an emergency.”
The outlet added that “the longer the response is delayed, the greater the risk could grow,” suggesting that an uncontrollable price collapse could occur in the long term.
Meanwhile, Forbes also struck a hopeful note, pointing to the industry’s swift response. The outlet noted that “Armstrong’s personal involvement and mobilization of Coinbase developer resources to craft countermeasures shows the industry is taking this seriously before it becomes a fatal threat,” adding that “in an optimistic reading, such preemptive security-strengthening responses could ultimately reinforce confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term viability.”
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