Acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, overhauling Japan’s longstanding non-nuclear principles and bolstering defense spending were some of the key proposals raised at an expert panel’s first meeting on rewriting the nation’s core security policies.
The meeting that convened at the Prime Minister’s Office on April 27 is central to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s push for a “fundamental reinforcement of defense capabilities” through a year-end revision of the National Security Strategy and two other key documents.
The panel’s official name is the “Expert panel for considering security from the perspective of comprehensive national power.”
Its 15 members include six researchers, three former government officials, four corporate leaders and two media company presidents. Their selections reflect the government’s priorities in certain fields.
Kenichiro Sasae, a former ambassador to the United States, was named chairman.
ADAPTING FOR MODERN WAR
“Learning lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East, we must advance our response to new ways of fighting and prepare for a long war,” Takaichi said at the meeting.
Reflecting this focus, the government appointed to the panel Atsuko Higashino, a University of Tsukuba professor and an expert on Ukraine, and Yutaka Matsuo, a professor at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Technology Management for Innovation, who specializes in AI.
A senior official from the Prime Minister’s Office explained that “‘new ways of fighting’ will likely be included in the three security documents.”
Strengthening “sustainability in combat,” or the ability to continue fighting a war, is another key topic.
The government and ruling parties are considering nationalizing munitions factories to ensure a stable supply of ammunition.
One goal is to create “a virtuous cycle between the economy and defense,” according to a source close to Takaichi.
For that goal, the panel includes top executives from Boston Consulting Group Japan, Toray Industries Inc., MUFG Bank Ltd. and NEC Corp.
BEYOND THE BATTLEFIELD
“Economic security” is also on the agenda, as the “weaponization of the economy” becomes more apparent, such as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Takaichi, a former minister for economic security, has a high interest in the topic.
The panel includes Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the University of Tokyo’s graduate school and an expert in the economic security field.
The heads of Fuji Television Network Inc. and The Yomiuri Shimbun Holdings are also participating.
A government official said the media leaders were included to advise on “how we should communicate externally.”
THE MULTI-TRILLION-YEN QUESTION
The biggest focal point is defense spending. The Takaichi administration already fast-tracked a goal to reach 2 percent of GDP by fiscal 2025.
Now, it faces a U.S. push for allies to spend 5 percent of GDP—3.5 percent for core defense and 1.5 percent for related expenses.
For Japan, a defense budget worth 3.5 percent of GDP would exceed 20 trillion yen ($126 billion) annually, while 5 percent would top 30 trillion yen.
A source from the Prime Minister’s Office noted that the idea of abandoning the traditional five-year planning cycle has emerged, saying, “We don’t necessarily need to think in five-year terms.”
RED LINES IN DEBATE
Another contentious issue is whether to retain the current strategy’s pledge to “firmly maintain the Three Non-Nuclear Principles” of not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons in Japan.
Takaichi has long argued for a review, writing in a book that the principle of “not allowing nuclear weapons to be brought into the country” is unrealistic when Japan relies on U.S. extended deterrence.
After the meeting, panel member Koji Yamazaki, a former Chief of Staff of the Joint Staff, said the issue “should be discussed within the objectives of this panel.”
Any revision of the three principles will likely face a strong backlash from proponents of Japan’s pacifist Constitution and supporters of “hibakusha” atomic bomb victims.
Discussions on acquiring nuclear-powered submarines are also drawing attention.
At the meeting, Noriko Endo, a professor at the Waseda Research Institute for Science and Engineering, reportedly said Japan “should possess” the submarines, citing increased Chinese activity in the Pacific Ocean.
The proposal would face significant hurdles, including the enormous costs and questions whether it would be consistent with Japan’s stance on the peaceful use of nuclear energy.
The panel’s next meeting is scheduled for early June.
(This article was compiled from reports written by Kohei Morioka, Ryo Aibara, Mizuki Sato and Yuta Ogi.)
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