More than 700 police officers have already been lost in Scotland in just three years as the force watchdog has warned that further reductions in police numbers are not sustainable, with a stand still funding settlement potentially resulting in another 1,260 officers and civilian staff being lost in 2027/28.
Its warning comes as Police Scotland continues to investigate threatening emails sent to schools across the country, including a fresh wave on November 11 which the force said had been assessed as hoaxes and posed no credible threat to the public.
It also comes amid concern that Police Scotland is facing a standstill budget next year, with the force potentially receiving no increase in cash funding despite rising costs.
In a briefing seen by ministers on the policing budget for 2027/28, the independent public body responsible for governing and maintaining policing in Scotland, as well as holding the national police service, to account. said: “Policing is currently under severe strain with rapidly changing demands.”
It added: “Demand has changed, increasing in both complexity and volume in some areas, (particularly in the digital space).”
They also warned: “Further reductions in the workforce are not sustainable.”
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The latest hoax emails followed an earlier wave in October which prompted more than 300 calls to Police Scotland. The threats led to disruption at schools in several parts of Scotland, with some establishments evacuated as a precaution while others remained open after taking advice.
Police Scotland has said the November messages were widely distributed across the UK and Northern Ireland. Its advice was that there was no requirement to evacuate schools or keep children away from education solely because of the content of the emails.
The authority is expecting the bomb hoax issue to be raised with Police Scotland.
(Image: Colin Mearns)
An authority spokesman said in the wake of the hoaxes concerns, which have led a national parents group to call for a national emergency plan, that they had highlighted “increasing and complex demands on policing including cyber-crime” with ministers. The spokesman said its briefing on the future budget “also reinforced the need to invest in digital transformation and infrastructure including investment in digital capability”.
The document sets out the financial choices facing Police Scotland and warns that the consequences of a flat-cash settlement would be severe. It says the force has already made £100m of cuts in recent years to balance its budget and meet rising costs, including pay awards.
The 700 officers lost since 2022/23 had affected the capacity available to deliver policing, the authority said.
If Police Scotland receives no increase in its budget next year, around 1,260 jobs could be lost in 2027/28, including 958 police officers and 302 civilian staff. The cuts would save about £43m. The Scottish Police Authority warns that a further 400 police officers could then have to go in the following year.
The submission says such a settlement would leave officer numbers below 15,600, the lowest level since 2003/04, and describes the impact as a “substantial and indiscriminate reduction to the workforce resulting in significant degradation of the service”.
The authority says the force needs more than enough money simply to balance its books. It is seeking an additional £32m above the minimum funding requirement for 2027/28 to support frontline policing, specialist capabilities and investment in technology.
The budget overview says: “Fundamental to public service reform – Investment in digital capability, equipment and the policing estate to support productivity, resilience and modern service delivery.”
The force’s Cyber and Fraud Unit is carrying out extensive enquiries to establish where the messages originated, with police working alongside law enforcement partners in the UK and internationally. Police have not confirmed whether the October and November incidents are linked.
In a letter to Education Secretary Màiri McAllan, Connect, the organisation representing parents and parent councils, called for ministers to consider a national contingency strategy.
The latest threats have prompted an urgent meeting between the Scottish Government, Police Scotland, councils and wider partners, with ministers seeking a co-ordinated response.
Education Secretary Màiri McAllan said the messages had been rapidly assessed by police as not credible and were being treated as hoaxes. She repeated police advice that there was nothing to suggest a threat to the public and that schools did not need to close or pupils to be kept away on the basis of the emails.
The police authority’s warning about funding and digital capability does not identify any specific shortcoming in the investigation into the school threats. However, its briefing sets out the wider challenge facing a force expected to deal with increasingly complex offences while managing years of financial pressure and a reduced workforce.
Neil Gray
Justice secretary Neil Gray said: “Police Scotland provides vital services that keep our communities safe, which is why we provided record funding of more than £1.7 billion for policing in 2026-27. Scotland also continues to have more police officers per head of population when compared to England and Wales.
“We will continue to work with Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority to discuss their 2027-28 budget requirements as part of the normal Scottish Budget process.”
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