Another provocative headline screamed across my screen this week, with plenty of Wall Street stock action to back up the bold words.
The CNBC headline (with embedded video) read: “‘The era of quantum supremacy is just around the corner,’ IonQ CEO says.”
Here are some of the main points:
- “IonQ CEO Niccolo de Masi told CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday that major advances in quantum computing are fast-approaching.
- “’The era of what’s called quantum supremacy is just around the corner,’ De Masi said. ‘It’s coming in quarters and very low single-digit years, and that’s getting people, obviously, pretty excited about the fact that we’ll be able to do things to help every area of applied science.’
“Wall Street’s interest in quantum computing is growing as tech titans like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and IBM, as well as the U.S. government, spend millions to develop quantum computers. The technology aims to solve problems that are too complex for classical computers using quantum mechanics. Investors were particularly excited by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s bullish comments on quantum computing last month. Huang said quantum computing is ‘reaching an inflection point’ and indicated that practical use cases are coming faster than he previously expected.”
QUANTUM DEFINITIONS
But backing up a bit, you many wonder: What is quantum supremacy?
According to TechTarget: “Quantum supremacy is the experimental demonstration of a quantum computer’s dominance and advantage over classical computers by performing calculations previously impossible at unmatched speeds. To confirm that quantum supremacy has been achieved, computer scientists must be able to show that a classical computer could never have solved the problem while also proving that the quantum computer can perform the calculation quickly.
“Computer scientists believe quantum supremacy will lead to the cracking of Shor’s algorithm — a currently impossible calculation that is the basis of most modern cryptography — as well as offer advantages in drug development, weather forecasts, stock trades and material designs.”
I also found this explanation to be helpful in my understanding. According to IBM almost six years ago: “Recent advances in quantum computing have resulted in two 53-qubit processors: one from our group in IBM and a device described by Google in a paper published in the journal Nature. In the paper, it is argued that their device reached ‘quantum supremacy’ and that ‘a state-of-the-art supercomputer would require approximately 10,000 years to perform the equivalent task.’
“Because the original meaning of the term ‘quantum supremacy,’ as proposed by John Preskill in 2012, was to describe the point where quantum computers can do things that classical computers can’t, this threshold has not been met.”
One more. Thequantuminsider.com wrote quotes about why quantum supremacy matters:
“Scott Aaronson, chair of computer science at the University of Texas at Austin, views quantum supremacy as a milestone that can be achieved, lost, and perhaps regained. He told Aventine that the ultimate goal is to find tasks where quantum computers definitively outperform classical ones, even if those tasks are not immediately practical. …
“Aaronson acknowledges that quantum supremacy is a ‘moving target’ as classical algorithms improve.
“’Quantum supremacy can be achieved and then unachieved later,’ he said. ‘But all expect that we’ll eventually get to a place where quantum computers are just routinely doing things that classical computers cannot replicate within thousands of years or millions of years, and at that point, there’s no more arguing about it.’”
Other excerpts from that same article convey the idea that quantum supremacy is a marketing tool, that it buys time for meaningful accomplishments, is simply a benchmark to be reached or even “as a reflection of our ability to control quantum systems. For [physicist and Princeton University professor Shivaji] Sondhi, the concept is less about outperforming classical computers and more about the complexity of quantum behavior.”
WHY QUANTUM NOW?
In the past few months, there has been plenty of excitement around technical advances all over the world. A few weeks back, I talked about the positive and negative aspects of these trends for cryptocurrencies on the blog with “Bitcoin Booms, Scammers Bloom: Crypto Hits a Record High.”
And beyond the Jim Cramer interview on CNBC, there have been plenty of big stock market moves on quantum computing companies, which reflects a growing confidence that these advances are real and lasting in a business sense.
For example, consider these media headlines (although, to be clear, I am not saying to buy, or sell, any of these stocks. I am just providing examples.):
QUANTUM COMPUTING AND CYBERSECURITY
In the past week, The Motley Fool published a thought-provoking article titled “The Real Reason Quantum Computing Stocks Are Soaring (It’s Not What You Think).” Here’s an excerpt:
“Wall Street loves a good narrative, and quantum computing stocks have delivered several over the past year. Alphabet demonstrated breakthrough quantum capabilities with its Willow processor in late 2024, triggering a surge of investment into companies promising to solve optimization problems and accelerate drug discovery.
“But the surface-level excitement misses the real story: The quantum surge isn’t primarily driven by these breakthroughs or potential AI synergies. The true catalyst is an urgent, government-mandated cybersecurity crisis that has transformed quantum computing from a speculative technology into a validated strategic threat. ‘Q-Day’ — the hypothetical moment when quantum computers can break current encryption — has moved from academic theory to operational emergency, providing powerful validation for the entire ecosystem.
“Government response has moved far beyond research grants. The Office of Management and Budget has issued binding directives requiring all federal agencies to inventory cryptographic systems and develop transition plans. The White House estimates the federal transition alone will cost $7.1 billion between 2025 and 2035, representing massive spending on quantum-resistant cybersecurity solutions that will primarily benefit established cybersecurity firms and cloud providers rather than pure-play quantum companies.
“However, this urgent government validation of the quantum threat has created powerful tailwinds for the entire quantum ecosystem. John Young, chief operating officer at Quantum eMotion America, warns that ‘most businesses remain dangerously unprepared for Q-Day,’ while government agencies face compliance deadlines. This recognition that quantum computers represent an existential cybersecurity threat has transformed investor perception of quantum hardware companies from speculative science projects to strategic national assets.”
FINAL THOUGHTS
Yes, as with many other tech and cyber topic areas, this is not the first time we have discussed quantum computers in this blog.
In 2020, I cut my teeth on this topic in: “Is a New Quantum Internet Coming? The Latest DOE Efforts”
Back in 2022, I wrote: “Where Next for Quantum Computing and Cybersecurity?”
And in 2023, I interviewed Michael McLaughlin on the topic in the piece: “Quantum Computers: What Is Q-Day? And What’s the Solution?”
Needless to say, I expect to be returning to this quantum topic in the future, but pay attention now.
